The increasing level of violence in northern Nigeria is catching the attention of the world once again but this time, people have been divided into two groups. One, linking it to a foreign conspiracy and the other connecting it to the religious persecution. However, what is happening should not be seen as an invented “Christian genocide” or a foreign plot, but a long-standing insurgency which has changed, grown, and spread all over the Lake Chad basin.
A Conflict Difficult to Resolve
The latest attacks in northern Nigeria demonstrate that insurgent violence is not only continuing despite repeated assertions of the opposite, but there has been a visible resurgence in the level of violence. With the scale and closeness of the events, the incident that the conflict was disappearing was definitely overturned. Long-term insurgency that has not only survived but also turned its methods, means of operation, and capabilities to a large extent. This kind of violence is not just going to be in the Nigerian territory only. It’s connected with a bigger regional destabilization situation in the Sahel and Lake Chad areas, where crisis /closed groups take advantage of unwell state, exposure of the borders and governance that is poor.
Changing Insurgency, Not Stagnant Terrorism
Several changes have occurred over time in the terrorist or rebellious groups that operate in northern Nigeria. New Players like ISWAP, for instance, have become the type of actors who are organized and capable on a strategic level compared to the previous fragmented Boko Haram. Factions within the group have diverged to some extent and as a result, one of the groups has got a very limited impact area; meanwhile, the other has almost taken over the local area around the Borno region. Also, between the type of the attacks, there have been quite big changes.
Before, it was the kind of situation where one could expect the attack coming and prepare for the defense at the appropriate time; but now the insurgents should be described more as war machines that single out the target and work with one another in different and high-speed ways in order to reach their objective – or getting undetected after the attack. Motorcycle groups are one of the means allowing such free movement enabling victory and withdrawal before encountering the enemy force.
Technology and Foreign Influence on the Battlefield
Another worrying trend is the rising use of adapted technology. The conflict scene is now witnessing commercial drones altered for reconnaissance and attack, which secretly adds this new element of cleverness at the tactical level. Moreover, foreign fighters’ presence has turned insurgency into one more thing. These individuals have experienced combat, have been trained technically and have links the outside that help the local groups and connect them with the larger transnational extremist networks.
Regional Fragmentation Weakening Response
The crisis is further complicated by the breakdown of regional cooperation. Institutions like the Multinational Joint Task Force which played a major role in planning and implementing coordinated counterinsurgency operations have been weakened as a result of the political instability and shifting alliances in the neighbouring states. The pullout or scaled down the participation of some countries has left gaps that insurgents are very quick to take advantage of. In the absence of strong cross-border coordination, insurgents can still continue to move, regroup, and resupply across national boundaries with very little difficulty.
Root Causes Beyond the Battlefield
Armed confrontations have to continue only as one amongst several tools to ensure a country’s stability. In fact, other causes of unrest run far deeper than weapons and fighting. Enduring poverty, limited schooling, unaccountable and weak state institutions, exclusion of certain groups from social and political opportunities through time, all these have created an environment where youth join armed groups quite easily. Often the only thing that the state offers to such populations is either virtual invisibility or harshness, and this leaves room for the armed groups to portray themselves as the legitimate authorities. The breakdown of the work relationship between people and their institutions is still a root cause of many long-term problems. One of the main tools for initial societal development rests on education. It seems that a feeble education system in the early stages not only deprives the young population of proper schooling but also renders them susceptible to radical ideas particularly when the governance is already fragile in the area.
Governance Gaps and Institutional Weakness
Local government in Nigeria is one of the lowest points of the security setup according to most stakeholders. On the one hand, the primary school system and other basic socio-economic services are provided by the local governments; on the other, these very institutions are struggling everywhere for the lack of autonomy, funding, and operational capacity.
The situation thus opens up a loophole where the radicalisation prevention at the very early stage becomes almost impossible. Without proper grassroots governance top-down prevention strategies will be only half way done.
More the Than Force, Solution Is Needed To End the Crisis
It is not possible to make sense of the security situation in Northern Nigeria by falling back on simplistic storylines of foreign plot or singled-out persecution. This insurgency has spread across the whole northern Nigeria with the time, taken advantage of the flaws in governance system. Despite the fact that the government occasionally has to use its military power, it certainly should not be the only option. Lasting peace is reliant on the re-establishment of local administrations, intensification of regional linkages and tackling of the socio-economic causes of the conflict. Until these fundamental issues are tackled, these issues will remain unresolved because of the prevailing circumstances that are not been handled properly.